Treasury Decision Framework
Four executive actions. Four practical Treasury questions. One repeatable way to approach difficult decisions.
| 1 UNDERSTAND REALITY What is really happening?
Treasury application: Clear thinking applied: Which assumptions drive our liquidity forecast, and which indicators genuinely matter? |
| 2 CREATE OPTIONS What else could we do?
Treasury application: Creative thinking applied: What funding, pricing or balance-sheet alternatives have we not yet considered? |
| 3 SHAPE OUTCOMES How will others respond?
Treasury application: Strategic thinking applied: How could customers, competitors, markets, regulators or business units react? |
| 4 PREVENT FAILURE How could this fail?
Treasury application: Inverse thinking applied: What combination of events or failed assumptions could invalidate the strategy? |
The thinking disciplines underneath
The four executive actions are made rigorous through complementary thinking disciplines:
Clear & Simple Thinking: decision science, bounded rationality, heuristics, problem diagnosis and the distinction between genuine and false complexity.
Creative Thinking: reframing, lateral thinking, design thinking, assumption reversal and systematic approaches to expanding the solution space.
Strategic Thinking: game theory, strategic interaction, second-order effects, feedback loops, systems thinking and constructive dissent.
Inverse Thinking: falsification, inversion, pre-mortems, prospective hindsight, reverse stress testing and early-warning indicators.
Theory made practicalThe course draws on well-established ideas from decision science, cognitive psychology, strategic thinking, systems theory and risk management. Participants are not expected to study these concepts academically. Instead, they are introduced through practical Treasury Risk challenges and applied immediately to real-world situations. |
